BEWARE THAT STAT

The thing about statistics is this: they are commonly the first things turned to when someone is trying to prove a point, when in fact they rarely prove anything.

For example: let's say someone is trying to prove the economy is gettiang better by citing a statistic that more homes were sold in the past three months than were sold in the three months priori That stat could indicate that more people are working and are earning and spending more money...a good sign for the economy. Possibly.

Or, it could mean that fewer people are working, have used up their savings, need money to live and are selling their homes at low low prices, mostly to a small number of speculators...and that stat reflects a deepening of the recession.

Which is it? Or any one of a hundred other possible meanings?

For example: let's say a stat shows that a greater percentage of high school graduates are going on to college, and it is used to prove that our educational system is working better and that more of today's youth see the value of education. Possibly.

Or, it could be that our educational system is in decline, that today's high school students are less interested in education, learned little in high school, do not have the skills to make a living, and are looking for four more years of partying and fun, fun, fun.

Which is it?

STATS REVEAL FACTS BUT GENERALLY PROVE NOTHING BECAUSE THE REASONS BEHIND THOSE FACTS, THE CAUSE OF THOSE FACTS, IS MISSING...UNKNOWN.

We live in a cause and effect world. Things do not happen arbitrarily. Some cause produces some effect. Different causes may produce the same effect.

For example: a television commercial shows some fellow saying, "I had a headache the other day, took an XXX pill and my headache went away. XXX works great!" Does it? What caused the headache to go away? The XXX pill? The water that was taken to help swallow the pill? The body's natural healing system? The phone call he got from that pretty young lady inviting him to dinner? The $100 bill he found in the street? The doctor telling him his biopsy was negative? What?

To prove cause and effect is one of the more difficult things to do. Generally takes extensive research and study, examining and testing a multitude of alternative possibilities, etc. Most are not willing to expend the effort and time, which can be substantial. Hence, the grabbing of a stat out of the drawer, waving it about and shouting "Can't argue with facts. Here's the proof".

Proof, hell.